Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

ADP Employment

This morning’s sole economic report was February’s ADP Employment report that tracks payroll changes in the private sector. It revealed only 117,000 new non-governmental jobs were added back to the economy last month. This was well below expectations and lower than January’s revised 195,000. The weaker number should be good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but it doesn’t seem to be appeasing bond traders. Maybe it will be reflected in the recently typical afternoon volatility.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Beige Book

We also have the Fed Beige Book release to watch this afternoon. This report details economic activity throughout the country by Federal Reserve region via business contacts. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction following the 2:00 PM ET release. It usually does not cause a major move in the markets or mortgage rates. If we see a reaction, it will come during mid-afternoon hours.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow has three pieces of data scheduled, starting with last week’s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM. They are expected to show that approximately 750,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed during the week. A high number of claims is a sign of sector weakness, meaning the larger the number tomorrow, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Low

Unknown

Productivity and Costs (Quarterly)

Also early tomorrow morning will be the release of the revised Productivity Index for the 4th Quarter of last year. Analysts are expecting to see a decline of 4.8% in output. Employee productivity is watched fairly closely because a higher level of output per hour is believed to mean that the economy can expand without inflation concerns. This release also includes a labor costs reading that can be quite influential if it shows a surprise. Since this data is quite aged now, it likely will have little impact on mortgage rates unless it shows a significant change.

Medium

Unknown

Factory Orders

December's Factory Orders data is set to be released at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release in giving us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength but includes new orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is not one of the more important reports we get each month though. Analysts are expecting a 1.9% rise in new orders, indicating strength in the manufacturing sector. The bond market would like to see a large decline, indicating manufacturing activity was weaker than many had thought.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

ADP Employment

Fed Beige Book

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Productivity and Costs (Quarterly)

Factory Orders

Float / Lock Recommendation