Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, June 30th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite a lack of relevant economic headlines. Stocks are showing early gains with the Dow up 140 points and the Nasdaq up 63 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32 (4.25%), which should offset some weakness late Friday and keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Friday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday increase in rates Friday, you should see an improvement this morning.

6/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.25%

140

Dow

43,959

63

NASDAQ

20,336

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Unknown

None

Today is the only trading day of the week that doesn’t have something relevant scheduled for release. The rest of the week has five monthly reports set for release over just three days due to Friday’s Independence Day holiday. Two of them are considered to be key releases. In addition to the data, there is also a Fed-member speech of particular interest tomorrow.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

Fed Chairman Powell will begin this week’s relevant activities with an overseas speaking engagement at 9:30 AM ET tomorrow. He will be participating in a panel discussion at a European Central Bank forum in Portugal. The topic of the discussion is related to monetary policy, so we could hear something that the markets find highly relevant and react accordingly.

High

Unknown

ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

Also tomorrow morning is the release of June's manufacturing index from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) at 10:00 AM ET. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. May's reading that was posted last month came in at 48.5. Market participants are expecting a reading of 48.7, indicating slightly stronger activity in the manufacturing sector. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a lower reading. This is a very important report and is watched closely, partly because it is the first piece of data that tracks the previous month's activity each month.

---

Unknown

none

Overall, the governmental Employment report that comes Thursday instead of the usual Friday release makes that day the best candidate for most important one for rates, but tomorrow may also bring a noticeable change if the ISM index surprises the markets and Fed Chairman Powell says something unexpected. With several events scheduled that have the potential to move rates noticeably this week, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Michael Skovron PA Skovron Group

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